5. A more stringent application of GST to offshore online purchases will boost domestic online sales
Domestic online sales will grow more quickly in 2018 than for any of the last few years.
6. Extra office supply in Auckland and Wellington won’t dent strong capital value and rental increases
This will particularly affect those in the food and beverage sector. However, the lag effect of these measures and continued positive consumer confidence will defer any negative effects beyond 2018, while robust tourism growth will counteract these effects in tourist hotspots.
7. In a year, the national median house price will be higher than it is now
Downside protection will be provided by base demand, which remains robust, low interest rates and, at the margins, easing of loan to value restrictions.
8. Off the plan residential sales will get a boost
Concentrating overseas buyers on new homes, plus a bit of Government buying, will begin to boost ‘off the plan’ sales, allowing supply in the following years to increase.
9. Government efforts to increase skilled labour for the construction industry will be constrained
Other Government policies, such as free tertiary education for a year, and reduced immigration will impact plans to train or import more labour. Construction cost inflation isn’t going to go away in the short term.
10. The official cash rate won’t go up until late 2018 at the earliest
A shortage of quality stock for sale in a high demand environment will be a more powerful influence than marginally higher debt costs, driving further yield compression in the commercial sector.